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Proprietary global macroeconomic and capital markets research highlights from AWAIM's Investment Committee, curated and commentary by Founder & Chief Investment Officer, Ivan Illán, AIF, CFS. Perspectives shared here are Investment Committee considerations for portfolio management decisions and other related risk management activities.

Wednesday, February 7, 2024

In my next article for Forbes tentatively titled, "Hoping For A Bad Recession To Fix Inflation Is Unfortunately Necessary", I write about one economic metric that's flashing yellow - the Output Gap. Figure 1 illustrates just how...

Saturday, January 6, 2024

In an upcoming Forbes article tentatively entitled, "It's Normal That The Stock Market and Economy Are On Different Pages", I share a study on the relationships between U.S. GDP, M2 Money Supply, S&P 500, and DJIA across four distinct...

Wednesday, December 6, 2023

If market participants seem to be overly obsessed with the direction of the Federal Funds Rate (FFR), then we should dedicate a research highlight to its level over the past two decades.

Thursday, November 2, 2023

As the US economy continues to adjust to higher interest rates, a review of prior periods of aggressive Federal Reserve rate hiking cycles is necessary. The accompanying charts detail the historical records for the Effective Federal...

Monday, October 2, 2023

When thinking about the implications of a flat-to-inverse yield curve for an economy, you don't need a doctorate in applied mathematics or economics to understand that it's not supportive of properly functioning capital markets....

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Friday, September 1, 2023

If you're looking for signs of economic cooling, the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector is now 15.90% lower than before the pandemic (as of August 31, 2023). The accompanying chart shows the significant...

Tuesday, August 1, 2023

It's challenging to get a clear view on the directionality of corporate financials. This is due to many factors, but one in particular is the obscurity of non-operating expenses. Unlike other expense categories for businesses,...

Monday, July 10, 2023

In my podcast dated June 9, 2023 entitled "Bad Breadth", the phenomenon illustrated in the accompanying chart was discussed. This market dynamic has continued since then. The chart reveals the divergence in performance began somewhere...

Wednesday, June 14, 2023

The concept of Equity Risk Premium (ERP) could be viewed through the lens of two marketplace components - a risk-free rate and the market's earnings yield (see chart). Prior to the Great Financial Crisis ('08-'09) the risk-free rate...

Monday, May 15, 2023

Corporate wellness programs have been key tools in improving productivity, employee retention, and creating a more desirable corporate culture. While many companies have put a strong focus on physical wellness plans, many are just...

Tuesday, May 9, 2023

Over the past five years, note the high correlation between the US stock market and M2 money supply. This correlation works both to the upside and downside. As the Federal Reserve continues its contractionary monetary policy stance, we expe

Sunday, May 7, 2023

The world is facing an unprecedented economic challenge as the inflation rate continues to rise. People are trying to understand why their wallets are feeling lighter, and they are looking for someone to blame. Unfortunately, corporations..

Wednesday, May 3, 2023

As you make gifts of your business interest, you might also be giving up some of your ownership control over the business, while the recipient of the gift gains control. If you have co-owners, your relative percentage of control will dimini

Thursday, April 27, 2023

In my Forbes article from November 2022 entitled, “The Unexpected Gift of Currency Devaluation”, I shared our firm’s view that the US Dollar faces headwinds that other currencies do not. Since that time, the US Dollar has weakened by...

Monday, April 24, 2023

Retirement is a significant milestone in one's life, which requires careful planning and foresight to pursue a confident and stress-free transition. One effective way to plan for retirement is by adopting the Retirement Bucket Strategy.

Monday, April 10, 2023

Investing can be a tricky business, even for seasoned professionals. With a plethora of investment options available and constantly changing market trends, it can be difficult to make informed investment decisions.

Thursday, March 30, 2023

Currently, the yield on BBB corporates is 24% HIGHER than average, since Mar'05. Meanwhile, these same bonds exhibit a 30% LOWER than average OAS/Yield ratio. This may suggest that risk-reward in this area is abysmal.

Thursday, March 23, 2023

Quantitative tightening reversal (see chart)… Almost half the tightening since its inception last year has been undone in the past two weeks. Hopefully, this is a brief policy blip. Regardless, we do not view this as a positive...

Wednesday, March 8, 2023

Personal household savings have declined from over $4.8 Trillion in Q2’2020 to less than $800 Billion. Meanwhile, high interest rate credit card debt has grown from around $800 Billion to nearly $1 Trillion, over the same period...

Thursday, February 16, 2023

Revenge spending post-pandemic continues to be an impactful force within the U.S. economy. Not only have we seen household consumer debt top $4.7Trillion by the end of Q3’2022 (an all-time high), but the personal saving rate has continued t

Wednesday, February 8, 2023

Far from wow, most job growth over the past year has been in part-time employment. This has been a recessionary sign in previous economic cycles incl. 1981, 1990, & 2008.

Friday, January 13, 2023

The 10-Year US Treasury Yield has risen 116% over the past year, while the Fed (the "buyer of last resort") has reduced its assets by only 3%.

Tuesday, December 6, 2022

A decade-plus downtrend in M1 money velocity could be attributable to the dramatic historical deviation of monetary base vs. currency in circulation, began in the Great Financial Crisis (Oct'08) and has accelerated since. In short,...

Wednesday, October 19, 2022

Over the past five years U.S. exports of services (which is the largest segment of the U.S. economy) have increased a little over 12%, while imports of services have increased by nearly 21%. This is in part due to the growing trend of...

Monday, September 19, 2022

Over the past decade, home prices have increased at an annualized rate of nearly 9% per year, while incomes have increased by almost 4% per year. This has resulted in home prices that are now 4.5X more than US median family income. Ten...

Tuesday, September 6, 2022

If you think all developed economy stock markets have been losing value this year, you’d be wrong. Year-to-date (as of September 5, 2022), the MSCI United Kingdom index level has gained 0.77% in local currency terms (e.g.,...

Thursday, August 25, 2022

There’s an unusual divergence between US GDI (gross domestic income) and US GDP (gross domestic product). Typically, these two metrics track very closely, as an economy’s participants earn wages, profits, and taxes from the...

Monday, August 15, 2022

U.S. households have been far more conservative in their debt accumulation relative to the government and corporations, rising just 43% from a decade ago (or 3.72% annualized). Compare this to U.S. public debt per capita which has...

Monday, August 8, 2022

With U.S. corporate debt at its highest level ever and yields on investment grade corporate debt at levels more than twice that of two years ago, CFOs may find it more challenging to navigate refinance and/or debt payoff options, as a...

Wednesday, July 27, 2022

If Friday’s PCE figure is at $17T or higher I’d expect The Fed to aggressively pursue its more restrictive monetary policy well into the Fall. Getting prices under control is all about bringing “demand into better...

Tuesday, July 19, 2022

Yield on B-rated is 287bps above its 5-Year average, while OAS is 141bps above. Finally beginning to see some good old-fashioned increased credit risk perception coming back to this market but would expect to see more as FOMC activity level